این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که پیش‌بینی‌کنندگان انتخابات فاقد داده‌های تاریخی در مورد اینکه چگونه خلق و خوی ملی هر مسابقه سنا را هدایت می‌کند، ندارند

Election forecasters lack historical data on how national mood drives each senate race, study shows

U.S. Senate races are increasingly decided by national forces rather than state-level politics or incumbency advantage. That makes election forecasts less certain than they appear, according to a new study in PS: Political Science & Politics by researchers at the University of California, Davis, and George Mason University.